The order by Sacramento Superior Court Judge James P. Arguelles last week gives recall proponents — which include some leading GOP donors, activists and electeds — a 120-day extension until March 17 to gather signatures because he agreed they were unfairly limited by the Covid-19 pandemic.
But veterans on the front lines of California’s last — and only — successful gubernatorial recall caution that Newsom’s opponents, including the embattled state Republican Party, will need a heady infusion of cash and an army of energized voters to get to the finish line.
The bar is extremely high. Organizers would need to collect nearly 1.5 million valid signatures — which means they'd actually need closer to 2 million to feel confident because of the generally high share of invalid signers for any petition. And they would have to find all of these supporters during a pandemic, when voters are less accessible in person and uncomfortable interacting with signature gathers. Qualifying a recall could take several million dollars, far more than 17 years ago.
There’s little evidence, Democratic political strategists say, to suggest the muscle and money is there to make that happen.
Garry South, who served as the senior adviser to Davis and has been an adviser to Newsom, warns that "the circumstances are far different now than in the ‘03 recall," when a single rich Republican — Rep. Darrell Issa — contributed $1.7 million of his own fortune to underwrite the ouster of the politically vulnerable Davis, presumably to make the gubernatorial run himself.
Issa’s cash got the recall campaign off the ground, but allowed Schwarzenegger, a charismatic action movie hero, to take over the cause — declaring his candidacy on "The Tonight Show" and winning the governorship in less than 90 days. Those freakish circumstances appear highly unlikely to re-occur this year, he said.
It also came in a much different era before President Donald Trump damaged the party's standing in California, the population was less diverse and Republicans still had a legitimate shot each gubernatorial election to compete. Heading into the 2003 recall, 44 percent of the electorate was registered as Democrats compared to 35 percent Republicans. That split today is 46 percent Democratic, 24 percent Republican — and 24 percent with no party allegiance.
No Republican has held statewide office since Schwarzenegger left at the beginning of 2011. Newsom has been considered about as safe a bet for re-election as any governor before him. But others warn that lightning could strike twice.
"I would not laugh it off," said Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, who served as communications director to Schwarzenegger during the 2003 recall and later when he took office.
In the era of pandemic politics, Newsom has been perceived as "declaring war on certain industries, and with the general frustration with the business community — and they could be feeling pretty emboldened," Stutzman said.
The recall strategy is still a longshot, but if the economy doesn't bounce back and the Covid-19 picture doesn't look up, voters angered with political hypocrisy — frustrated and finance-strapped — may be ripe for convincing that it's Newsom's time to go, Stutzman said.
"They could say, 'Recall? Yeah, I’ll sign that.'"
California established the recall in 1911 as one of a series of populist reforms, along with the state's initiative and referendum powers.
The foundation for the 2003 recall was a pent-up, statewide anger after California couldn't keep the lights on during the energy crisis and raised taxes on vehicles in the car-crazed state. Though Davis survived his 2002 re-election bid against a conservative Republican, voters were still frustrated with their leader.
Proponents spy a similar populist opening in 2020, especially after the governor's foray to the French Laundry with top lobbyists and sending his kids to private school. The multimillionaire businessman and wine entrepreneur lives in a gated $4 million mansion overlooking the American River, according to public records.
Newsom last week apologized for attending the dinner party, but the story persisted after Fox LA obtained pictures suggesting the Nov. 6 event wasn't exactly outside — contrary to his description — and showed the governor dining with two top officials with the powerful doctors' lobby.
Recall activists say Newsom's coronavirus restrictions on churches, gyms, restaurants and other businesses have fueled the state's nearly 10 percent unemployment rate. Most of California's 6 million public schoolchildren remain at home in part because Newsom has left it up to local school districts and labor unions to determine when to reopen.
Already, the same radio talk show hosts who helped fuel the 2003 recall are firing up their anti-governor blowtorch again, railing nonstop against Newsom. John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou, the "John and Ken" afternoon duo at KFI radio in Los Angeles, have been lambasting the governor as an "aristocrat" who has caused residents to suffer during the pandemic.
“Gavin Newsom is the best salesman — driving more people to sign this recall than we could ever do ourselves," said Orrin Heatlie of Folsom, the lead organizer of RecallGavin2020.com, with 75 volunteer groups statewide and 250,000 followers on social media.
Heatlie, a recall organizer, has retired after serving 25 years as a sergeant with the Yolo County Sheriff’s Office — where he was a lead negotiator in crisis response and hostage negotiations. In recent months, he has expressed views on social media that have been criticized as extreme. In April, Heatlie posted on Facebook, “The same people calling me a science, climate denier are claiming there are multiple genders, and they want me to vaccinate. I am soooooooooo NOT!” In another post, he suggested it might be a good idea to “microchip” undocumented immigrants.
Democrats have ignored the recall efforts so far. But if they begin taking the petitions seriously, they will be quick to emphasize that the effort is driven by Trump-aligned conservatives, whose views are unpopular statewide.
Dan Newman, a political adviser to Newsom, said it “will be interesting to see if ambitious Republican politicians really want to tie themselves to extremists who hold such abhorrent anti-California opinions.”
Heatlie said his group has already collected nearly 700,000 signatures and is now confident of reaching 1.5 million required thanks to Newsom’s "latest escapades." Collecting signatures, in person and online, he said, has been easier when voters are reminded of the governor's "shutting down Thanksgiving and travel plans … and telling everyone to limit who they’re in contact with, and at the same time, he’s going to the French Laundry."
If recall proponents have a shot at all, it will be that they somehow capture the attention of a big donor who decides to cut the movement a seven-figure check. Newsom's missteps have been covered daily on Fox News, potentially widening the pool of contributors.
Though the energy is coming from conservatives to circulate recall petitions, it would be a long-shot for a Republican to win the governor's office, let alone one who isn't a moderate. Del Beccaro acknowledges that Schwarzenegger "never could have been elected in a general election" as a challenger, but noted that a recall during a pandemic could upend conventional political rules.
If there are multiple candidates — in 2003, there were 135 — "this does represent the best chance for a Republican — a solution-minded Republican — to run for governor," he said.
San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer — a moderate, business-friendly Republican who has touted his city’s effective efforts to attack homelessness, is often mentioned as a GOP’s best shot at the state’s top spot. Faulconer told POLITICO on Thursday that he is "seriously considering" a run for governor in the future and has been criticizing Newsom in the past week as out of touch.
Already, Del Beccaro’s group, backed by the California Revival PAC which he founded, has found common cause with other recall organizations. Heatle’s California Patriot Coalition last month filed a 23-page lawsuit in Sacramento Superior Court, arguing that the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic demanded an extension of normal deadlines for signature collecting — a decision that will now benefit both.
Heatle’s group has bankrolled its effort in part from crowd-funding, but also with a check from wealthy former GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who put in $100,000 — and is exploring another run at the governor’s seat in 2022.
Other major donors have included Northridge business owners Howard and Susan Groff, who donated $30,000, and Del Becarro’s California Revival PAC, which put in $60,000. With the judge’s order this week, Del Beccaro now says he expects to raise $3 million for his effort, and has some promising commitments from leading GOP donors, who he declined to name; Heatle says he will raise $1.5 million toward the goal.
Still, South argues that Republicans are dreaming if they think that they can replicate the success of California’s unforgettable 2003 recall. Among them: the distinct differences between the avuncular Davis and Newsom, who’s considered a rising star in the party and a likely future presidential candidate.
Davis won reelection in 2002 by a 5 percentage point margin over Republican Bill Simon, while Newsom was elected in a 2018 landslide of 62 percent to 38 percent.
Before his optics problems, Newsom’s approval rating last month was a stratospheric 58 percent, while 61 percent approved of his handling of Covid-19 crisis, according to the latest PPIC poll.
By comparison, Davis’ approval ratings were in the 30s, South said.
The biggest problem: California Republicans have no figure even close to competing with Schwarzenegger for excitement and name recognition, South observed. He dismissed Faulconer as a canididate who “sounds like a guy who trains birds ... and who most Californians have never heard of."
But proponents say polls have been wrong in the past — see: 2020 presidential election — and that the politicians in Sacramento can’t begin to measure the full brunt of the pain of Covid — which, they insist, can fuel another revolution in 2020.
“I give those people a lot of latitude, they don’t live like me,’’ said Hedstrom, who lost her home in the 2017 wine country fires. “I’m a displaced person, I live in a double wide trailer….But people are trying to survive here, businesses are closed, people are suffering in this state. “
“We need to clean house," she said, “and it starts with the governor.”
The Link LonkNovember 26, 2020 at 05:53AM
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/25/french-laundry-newsom-recall-drive-440736
French Laundry snafu reignites longshot Newsom recall drive - Politico
https://news.google.com/search?q=Laundry&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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